Exit from Brexit:
  • A New Deal for Britain.
  • A better future for the EU.

Brexit in Numbers

Facts and Numbers about Brexit.

Options for the UK outside the EU

 prokontra
EEA – the Norway modelBelong to the Single Market.

Able to negotiate trade deals independently of the EU.
Required to implement Single Market policies, but have no representation in setting the rules of the Single Market.

Must comply with rules of origin for exports to the EU and subject to EU anti-dumping measures.

Must contribute to the EU budget.
Bilateral agreements – the Swiss modelFree trade in goods and free movement of people with the EU.

Able to negotiate trade deals independently of the EU.

A la carte approach permits opting out of EU
programmes on a case-by-case basis.
Bilateral agreements require Switzerland to adopt EU rules, but
Swiss have no representation in EU decision making.

No agreement with the EU on trade in services.

Pay a fee to participate in EU programmes, but contribution likely to be lower than if in EEA.
Ein "Continental Partnership"
EEA membership with free trade in goods and services with the EU

Limited autonomy on immigration ceilings for EU migrants

Advisory role in EU decisions
EU approval for immigration quotas

Adoption of EU rules without voting rights in EU decisions

Must contribute to the EU budget
Das Lichtenstein/Brüssel - ModellFree trade in goods and free movement of persons with the EU.

Protective measure to control EU immigration or refuse access to benefits for EU immigrants without work.
EU approval for safeguard measures.

Adoption of EU rules without voting rights in EU decisions

Must contribute to the EU budget
EFTAFree trade in goods with the EU.

Able to negotiate trade deals independently of the EU.

Not required to adopt EU economic policies and regulations.

No obligation to contribute to the EU budget
No freedom of movement of people with the EU.

No right of access to EU markets for service
providers.

Goods exported to the EU must meet EU product
standards.
WTOAble to negotiate trade deals independently of the EU.

Not required to adopt EU economic policies and regulations.

No obligation to contribute to the EU budget.
Trade with EU subject to MFN tariffs and any nontariff barriers that comply with WTO agreements.

No freedom of movement of people with the EU.

No right of access to EU markets for service providers.

Goods exported to the EU must meet EU product standards.

Forecast GDP change per inhabitant in hard or soft brexit

 Soft BrexitHard Brexit
UK-0,63 %-2,98 %
Ireland-0,82 %-2,66 %
Luxembourg-0,48 %-0,8 %
Belgium-0,2 %-0,96 %
Sweden-0,13 %-0,48 %
Netherlands0,10 %-0,35 %
Germany-0,08 %-0,33 %
Spain-0,08 %-0,32 %
France-0,06 %-0,27 %
Austria-0,05 %-0,18 %
EU-27 (withoutUK)-0,10 %-0,25 %
World-0,06 %-0,25 %
Quelle: Berechnung des ifo Instituts.

Forecasted impact of Brexit automotive and automotive prices in the UK

 Veränderung der absoluten Menge produzierter AutosVeränderung der Menge produzierter Autos in %Steigerung der Autopreise in Prozent
Increase in trade costs and headquaters coordination costs-180.746-12%2,55%
Increase in headquaters coordination costs only-35.728-2,4%0,003%